Brent Crude Morning Brief — July 23, 2026

Brent Crude trades at $92.00 this Thursday morning, holding near its intra-session peak of $92.22 per barrel as mounting military tensions and dual-maritime transit risks continue to drive aggressive risk premiums into global energy prices. Following reports that Washington is preparing heavy bomber strikes against Iranian targets, President Trump asserted that Iran will soon seek a peace deal and that the US "does not need Hormuz" due to expanding oil cooperation with Venezuela. Tehran quickly dismissed the prospect of renewed negotiations, with Iranian parliamentary officials describing Washington's statements as mere verbal intervention designed to cap oil prices. Iranian state media reinforced this stance, warning that any US strikes on domestic infrastructure would prompt immediate retaliatory attacks against regional energy facilities in which the US holds commercial interests.

Physical transit bottlenecks are expanding rapidly across vital shipping corridors. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline, while Houthi forces escalated their Red Sea blockade by attacking a tanker off the Saudi coast, stoking fears of simultaneous disruptions across two major maritime choke points. With American WTI trading above 88.00, rising energy costs are compounding inflationary pressure on US consumers ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. On the domestic front, US refinery utilization rates remain exceptionally high at 96.1%, supported by consumption of gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel that consistently exceeds prior-year levels. Although US crude inventories posted a 2.0 million barrel build, overall commercial stockpiles remain well below historical averages.

Market Overview: The immediate path of least resistance remains firmly tilted to the upside as active dual-chokepoint transit threats and escalating geopolitical friction override modest inventory gains. Continuation buyers are focused on securing a daily close above the $92.22 peak, which would clear the runway toward the psychological $100.00 milestone. On any localized technical retracements, initial support is expected around $91.50, with a stronger structural floor established near $90.00.